Ian Welsh  ✒ Let us understand that the attack on the capitol, while it included many tourists, included some very serious, coordinated people who had temporary restraints and a plan.


They genuinely believed, because they have been told this over and over and over again, that the election had been blatantly and massively stolen, and that democracy in the United States had been overthrown. As such, it was their duty to right the wrong that had been done, including taking captive those most responsible like Nancy Pelosi.

It’s hard to find general polling data, but over 50% of registered Republican voters think the attack was justified. Almost half blame Biden more than Trump. Fourty-five (to 43%) think the protest/attack was justified.

Republican support, like Democratic support, is geographically concentrated.

These numbers are more than sufficient to sustain a long term insurgency.

It’s worth understanding how insurgencies get better. Let’s take Hezbollah as an example: if as a Hezbollah member, let alone commander, you get sloppy in your security at any time, you get dead, because Israel has the best American surveillance and e-lint equipment, plus jets and drones and assassination teams.

Continue reading @ Ian Welsh.

The Conditions Now Exist For A Long Term Right Wing Insurgency In America

Ian Welsh  ✒ Let us understand that the attack on the capitol, while it included many tourists, included some very serious, coordinated people who had temporary restraints and a plan.


They genuinely believed, because they have been told this over and over and over again, that the election had been blatantly and massively stolen, and that democracy in the United States had been overthrown. As such, it was their duty to right the wrong that had been done, including taking captive those most responsible like Nancy Pelosi.

It’s hard to find general polling data, but over 50% of registered Republican voters think the attack was justified. Almost half blame Biden more than Trump. Fourty-five (to 43%) think the protest/attack was justified.

Republican support, like Democratic support, is geographically concentrated.

These numbers are more than sufficient to sustain a long term insurgency.

It’s worth understanding how insurgencies get better. Let’s take Hezbollah as an example: if as a Hezbollah member, let alone commander, you get sloppy in your security at any time, you get dead, because Israel has the best American surveillance and e-lint equipment, plus jets and drones and assassination teams.

Continue reading @ Ian Welsh.

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