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Heartlands Tribune ☭ Written by Paul Knaggs. 

MPs have defeated the assisted dying bill by 286 votes to 270, a majority of 16. Support fell by 44 as Andy Burnham faced his first big Commons test.

MPs rejected a fresh attempt to legalise assisted dying on Friday, defeating the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill by 286 votes to 270.

Support for the bill fell by 44 MPs on last year’s vote. Three Labour opponents, including a minister who resigned after her own terminal diagnosis, said the result reflected a bill that was “unsafe and unworkable”, not a change of heart on the principle.

The result brings to an end, at least for this Parliament, a two-year campaign to change the law. MPs had twice backed the legislation before: at second reading in November 2024, by 330 votes to 275, and at third reading in June 2025, by 314 votes to 291. Both times the bill, sponsored then by the Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, went on to the House of Lords. Both times it stalled there. An unprecedented number of amendments from peers meant it ran out of parliamentary time before the 2024 to 2026 session ended, and the bill fell without becoming law.

Assisted Dying Bill Falls As Support Collapses

Atheist Ireland ★ Catholic baptisms in Ireland have dropped by 30% in the ten years from 2015 to 2025, according to a report published by the Iona Institute. But births have also dropped by 19%, which accounts for a substantial amount of the change.

19-August-2026

The drop in baptisms in Dublin is highest at 40%, and the average drop outside Dublin is 26%. Elphin in the West of Ireland is the only diocese with a slight rise of 1%. The figures are complicated, but only slightly, by three missing dioceses.

Iona concludes that around 60pc of the fall in baptisms is accounted for by declining births and 40% by rising secularism, particularly the number of people who say they don’t belong to any religion.

A more useful headline statistic would first adjust the baptism figures for the fall in births, and lead with the adjusted drop of about 13%.

This also reveals a bigger difference between Dublin and the other dioceses: a drop of about 23% in Dublin compared to about 10% elsewhere. So baptisms relative to births have dropped by more than twice as much in Dublin than outside Dublin.


The report assumes these drops relative to births are all down to secularisation. This likely explains most of it, but it could be a mix of that plus immigration, mixed-religion couples, or other reasons.

The secularisation reflects the weakened impact of the Catholic Church’s evangelisation of Irish culture. As the report concludes, it remains to be seen what happens if and when cultural Catholicism fades as a force in Irish life.

Babies and parents

The report says fewer children aged 0-4 are listed in the census as Roman Catholic: 65% in 2022, down from 78% in 2016. This is slightly lower than the figures for all Roman Catholics.

And it says more children aged 0-4 are listed in the census as no religion or not stated: 24% in 2022, up from 12% in 2016. This is slightly higher than the figures for all with no religion or not stated.

It also notes that the 65% of children listed as Catholic in 2022 corresponds very closely to the 68% of mothers aged 25-39 who identified as Catholic in that year.

But why count only mothers aged 25-39? And why not fathers? Why not measure this: of parents identifying as Catholic who had a child in year X, what percentage of those children were baptised?

In any case, the report concludes that almost all parents who consider themselves to be Catholic still have their children baptised, and that this shows that cultural Catholicism still remains quite strong in Ireland.

The report also claims that the number of Catholics still having their children baptised shows approval of the Catholic Church. But parents who disapprove of the Catholic Church might baptise their children for any number of reasons.

It might be family tradition. It might be to please their parents, who are the child’s grandparents. One partner might approve of the church while the other disapproves. They might want their child to fit in in the only available local school, which is Catholic.

All of the above is the essence of cultural Catholicism, which the report itself invokes to explain why baptism remains relatively popular. But cultural Catholicism does not equate to approval of the Church.

Marriages and schools

The weakest inferences in the report are the assertions about marriages and school choices.

The report says it is simplistic to say that the number of church weddings is in decline simply because of secularisation. If this was the biggest explanation, then why do so many of the same couples who marry in a hotel get their children baptised?

What do we know about the decline in church weddings? In the space of a generation, marriage culture has moved from a traditional religious default to personal choice.

Four in ten Irish marriages are now nonreligious (either Civil Registry or Humanist), while only three in ten are Catholic. Almost beneath the radar, a quarter are now religious alternatives, mostly some variation of Spiritualist.

But the report provides no data showing that the couples marrying in hotels are the same couples later baptising their children. These are separate statistics, and many recent newlyweds will not yet have children.

The report also says that, if more people disapproved of the church, the recent Department of Education survey about the sort of primary schools parents want would have shown far more demand for divestment.

But you can’t equate demand for a different school patron to approval or disapproval of the Catholic Church.

Parents might prefer the existing school because it is their only or most convenient local school, their child is already settled there, they like the teachers, they don’t want their child’s education disrupted, they don’t want to be seen to be causing trouble, or any other reason.

It would also be interesting to see if the drop in baptisms increased after the Education (Admission to Schools) Act 2018, which prevented Catholic schools from giving priority in admission to children who were baptised as Catholics.

This drop in baptisms would also mean that the numbers of children in schools exercising their right to not attend religious instruction would increase significantly. At present there is no evidence that this is happening as we believe parents find exercising the right discriminatory.

Cultural Catholicism

The report repeatedly notes that cultural Catholicism is a factor in Irish life. But cultural Catholicism did not emerge in a vacuum. For generations, the Catholic Church has explicitly sought to shape and evangelise our culture.

The Pontifical Council for Culture says that:


“What matters is to evangelise man’s culture and cultures, in a vital way, in depth and right to their very roots… Though independent of cultures, the Gospel and evangelisation… are capable of permeating them all without becoming subject to any one of them.”

Pope Francis said that that:


It is imperative to evangelise cultures in order to inculturate the Gospel. In countries of Catholic tradition, this means encouraging, fostering and reinforcing a richness which already exists. In countries of other religious traditions, or profoundly secularised countries, it will mean sparking new processes for evangelising culture.

In 2020, the Irish Catholic Bishops held a series of Zoom conferences titled “Evangelising Irish Culture Today.” It cited Pope Paul VI as saying:

What matters is to evangelise culture: not in a purely decorative way, as it were, by applying a thin veneer, but in a vital way, in depth and right to its very roots.

This helps explain the Catholic Church’s extraordinary influence over Irish culture and public institutions, including the school system that it still largely controls. As the Iona report concludes, it remains to be seen what happens if and when cultural Catholicism fades as a force in Irish life.

⏩ Follow Atheist Ireland on X @atheistie

Big Dip In Irish Baptisms, And What Does It Mean For Cultural Catholicism

Ukraine Solidarity Group ✊ A Digest of News from Ukrainian Sources ⚔ 13-September-2026.

In this week’s bulletin

⬤  More evidence of Russian torture.
⬤ Russia’s Crimes against Ukrainian Women.
⬤ citizens told to flee Donbas cities. 
⬤ fighting corruption in Ukraine. 
⬤ the war and the Russian economy.
⬤ life under siege in Kyiv.

News from the territories occupied by Russia

The Mission Discussed the Situation in Occupied Crimea and Strengthening the Policy of Non-Recognition of the Occupation (Crimea Platform, September 11th)

Melitopol husband and wife sentenced to 20 & 18 years after describing Russian abduction and torture (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 11th)

Russia doubles to 21 years its sentence against savagely tortured Crimean Tatar political prisoner Mamut Belyalov (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 11th)

Inside Russia's FSB prison system in Crimea (Kyiv Independent, September 11th)

Russia comes for father of 19-year-old Crimean Tatar political prisoner after he actively sought her release (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 10th)

Weekly update on the situation in occupied Crimea (Crimea Platform, September 9th)

Russia sentences husband and wife, abducted from occupied Kherson oblast, to 16 and 12 years for supporting Ukraine (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 8th)

New depths plummeted in Russia’s torment of Crimean Tatar political prisoner with a malignant brain tumour (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 7th)

Russia sentences abducted 64-year-old Melitopol journalist to 15 years after holding her incommunicado since 2023 (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 7th)

Progress of the war

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. Mediazona count updated. (Mediazona, September 11th)

Civilians told to flee Ukraine's fortress cities as Russia bids to control Donbas (BBC, September 11th)

Why pay rent just to sleep in the metro (Counteroffensive News, September 10th)

Putin dismisses rumors of another mobilization as `nonsense’. But can Russia keep fighting without another draft? (Meduza, September 10th)

Ukrainian sea drones strike Sochi waterfront, injuring nearly 30. Photos and video from the scene (Meduza, September 10th)

Russian sky on the castle. Is it real? (ZN, UA, September 4th)

How many more missiles does Russia have – and can it keep firing them? (Kyiv Independent, September 3rd)

News from Ukraine

Risk of humanitarian catastrophe: UN "very worried" about upcoming winter in Ukraine (Ukrainska Pravda, September 13th)

Russian strike on shopping centre in Pavlohrad: death toll rises to five, 67 injured – photos, video (Ukrainska Pravda, September 10th)

Top officials of the Luhansk region are suspected of embezzling UAH 5 million from state procurement (Babel, September 10th)

Ukraine’s readiness to implement the EU methane regulation: Initial assessment (Razom We Stand, September 9th)

How a corruption scandal and loyalty to Zelensky brought down Ukraine’s prosecutor general (Kyiv Independent, September 9th)

`Kyiv is gasping for breath’. Russia’s escalating attacks are upending daily life in the Ukrainian capital. Here’s how residents are coping (Meduza, September 9th)

Unpublished audits obtained by the New York Times show Ukraine ignored red flags in defense procurement as the country lost at least $1.2 billion to fraud, waste and mismanagement in 2024 alone (Meduza, September 7th)

Majority Russian-speaking city in Ukraine considers language ban in the arts (BBC, September 6th)

Rail Sector: Italy, Pakistan, Senegal, Ukraine (International Labour Network of Solidarity and Struggle, September 6th)

What’s behind the standoff between Ukraine's two intelligence agencies? (Kyiv Independent, September 4th)

`Hanging by a thread’ - Kyiv under psychological siege amid ceaseless strikes (Kyiv Independent, September 4th)

War-related news from Russia

Electric shock torture and a meeting with Victoria Roshchyna: What Ukrainian journalist Iryna Levchenko told the court in the Kapralov family case (Mediazona, September 11th)

War eating away at Russia's economy (Posle Media, September 9th)

The Georgy Pirogov case and Russia's high treason epidemic (The Russian Reader, September 6th)

Research into human rights abuses

New DIGNITY country infographic on Ukraine: access to justice in times of war (Zmina, September 9th)

KHPG and ADC Memorial Inform UN CEDAW Committee about Russia’s Crimes against Ukrainian Women (Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, September 7th)

ZMINA and OMCT submitted a report to the UN Committee against Torture on Ukraine’s implementation of recommendations issued at its 82nd session (Zmina, September 7th)

A study on the prosecution of those involved in enforced disappearances was presented to diplomatic missions and international organisations (Centre for Civil Liberties, September 7th)

Comment and analysis

How Ukraine’s biggest corruption scheme persisted despite all odds (Kyiv Independent, September 12th)

Are Ukrainians capable of turning experience into knowledge? (The Ukrainer, September 11th)

Ukrainian Urban Forum 2026 in Cherkasy (Cedos, September 11th)

The Democratic Centralists in Ukraine: Challenging Stalin and the Russian Leadership (Commons, September 9th)

How to make social protection reform in hromadas more effective: Findings from an expert workshop (Cedos, September 9th)

Russian empire, social dynamics and where Marxism goes from here (People and Nature, September 7th)

International solidarity

22 trade unions call for UK government to push to free imprisoned Zaporizhzhia nuclear workers (USC, September 12th)

Free the Zaporizhzhia power workers (Anti-Capitalist Resistance, September 8th)

Also not to be missed

Zine about culture of remembrance (Solidarity Collectives, September 13th)

Issues concerning residents of occupied territories must be part of negotiations – ZMINA (Zmina, September 7th)

A summer in Ukraine (International Viewpoint, September 7th)

Upcoming events

Ukrainian Workers Under Attack And Occupation - Free The Zaporizhzhia 15 - Free Ukraine 5.45pm, Tuesday 15th September – Harbour Hotel, 64 Kings Road, Brighton BN1
🔴This bulletin is put together by labour movement activists in solidarity with Ukrainian resistance. More information at Ukraine Information Group.

We are also on twitter. Our aim is to circulate information in English that to the best of our knowledge is reliable. If you have something you think we should include, please send it to 2U022ukrainesolidarity@gmail.com.


We are now on Facebook and Substack! Please subscribe and tell friends. Better still, people can email us at 2022ukrainesolidarity@gmail.com, and we’ll send them the bulletin direct every Monday. The full-scale Russian assault on Ukraine is going into its third year: we’ll keep information and analysis coming, for as long as it takes.

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News From Ukraine 💣 Bulletin 212

Friendly Atheist ★ Barbara Williams is suing the Bonner Springs-Edwardsville Unified School District over her disputed firing.

This past March, Kansas State Rep. Carolyn Caiharr, a first-term Republican who also serves as a local mayor, visited Edwardsville Elementary in Wyandotte County as a guest judge for their “Read Across America” door decoration contest.

It’s not often that you get to see a politician face-to-face, and Barbara Williams, a paraprofessional staffer who worked in the building, was eager to see her because they’re on opposite sides of the political aisle.

As Caiharr (pronounced KAY-har) walked down the hallway to look at the doors, Williams came up to her and said “Trans rights are human rights” and that “diverting taxpayer [money] to private schools is not right.”

During a conversation we had last night, Williams told me that she did this before the official school day started and before she was contractually obligated to clock in. Caiharr, she added, never acknowledged what she said. No response. No nod. So as they walked down the hallway (in the direction of Williams’ office), she said it again: “Trans rights are human rights.” She said it once more, too. There was never any response from the state representative.

Those seem like fairly innocuous statements.

But according to a lawsuit that Williams filed against the Bonner Springs-Edwardsville Unified School District last month—by herself because she doesn’t have a lawyer—she was fired later that day.

Continue @ Friendly Atheist.

A Teacher Told A Kansas Lawmaker “Trans Rights Are Human Rights.” Hours Later, She Was Fired

Right Wing Watch 👀 Written by Kyle Mantyla.

God Told Hank Kunneman That 'Gas Prices Are Going To Go Down'


Hank Kunneman is a Christian nationalist Trump cultist conspiracy theorist MAGA pastor who, despite a demonstrably lackluster record, declares himself to be a prophet of God.

In this capacity, Kunneman generally delivers two sorts of prophecies: Those that are conveniently open-ended and vague and those that are so laughably predictable as to be essentially useless. Both forms of prophecy serve Kunneman well by allowing him to claim credit whenever something resembling the predictable ones inevitably occur while also allowing him to insist that the vague, open-ended ones will eventually come true at some indeterminate point in the future.

Kunneman's gift for delivering self-serving prophecies was on full display last week when an episode of the "FlashPoint" program was broadcast from his church during his annual "Opening The Heavens" conference.

Terrified that Republicans could lose control of Congress in the midterm elections due in no small part to skyrocketing oil and gas prices stemming from the war that President Donald Trump started against Iran, Kunneman sought to use his prophetic gift, and some props, to assure nervous voters that God has promised that gas prices will fall.

Continue @ RWW.

Props And Prophecy

Lynx By Ten To The Power Of Two Thousand And Ninety Eight

 

Pastords @ 62

 

A Morning Thought @ 3270

Enda Craig ⬟ The shameful truth of the Donegal Defective Concrete Scandal has been smothered beneath carefully curated figures pumped out by Donegal County Council and the Government’s Housing Agency. 

The official narrative is neat, sanitised, and utterly disconnected from the lived reality of thousands of families whose homes are still crumbling.

Most victims have now given up hope of ever receiving genuine 100% Redress. They are simply trying to rebuild or patch their homes before the relentless progression of structural failure destroys their lives beyond recovery. This is not “support” — it is abandonment.

Every attempt by community groups, campaigners, and affected homeowners has barely dented a Government machine fixated on minimising the cost to the Exchequer. The so‑called “grant” is a partial subsidy that only the well‑heeled can top up. Everyone else is stranded in no man’s land, left without the means to rebuild, repair, or recover.

The Core Failure Has Never Been Investigated

Until there is a Public Inquiry into the deliberate misattribution of the cause to “MICA”, and a Judicial Review challenging the legality and validity of IS 465, nothing will change.

The system will continue protecting itself.

The victims will continue paying the price.

A Two‑Tier Scheme By Design

A small minority with access to substantial private funds will continue to navigate the Enhanced Grant Scheme successfully.

The majority — ordinary families, pensioners, single‑income households — will remain trapped in distress, unable to bridge the financial gap the State refuses to close.

This is not an accident.

It is a policy choice.

The Final Verdict Will Be Damning

In time, the Donegal Defective Concrete Scandal will be recognised as one of the most significant failures of public oversight in modern Ireland. No amount of slick accountancy, selective reporting, or bureaucratic spin will conceal the truth:

Those responsible failed — and the people of Donegal were left to carry the consequences.

⏩ Enda Craig is a Donegal resident and community activist.

The Reality Of Donegal’s Defective Concrete Scandal Is Being Buried

Anthony McIntyre ⚽ It was not the result we wanted but very much the one we expected.


Drogs go marching out, not on . . . no longer competing for the 2006 FAI Cup.

Normally, the Drogs would be given a fighting chance in this sort of game. A home fixture against a Galway side which while positioned above Drogheda in the league table are not one of the formidable Dublin sides, nor are they regarded as belonging to the big guns club. So, fans could arrive at Sullivan and Lamb Park anticipating a quarter final victory. That would leave the side knocking on the door of the Aviva with a real possibility of crossing the portal come November cup final day. A most welcome vista on the back of a dismal season thus far. We will still make the journey to Dublin on the day but it won't be in the claret and blue. A Dublin pub crawl has its own lure regardless of who is playing.

Jay, who will be with us on final day, has outgrown dependency on adults and is more than happy to go to the games with his friends. It reminded me so much of being let loose with my own buds at his age, turning up at the Oval on a Saturday afternoon to watch Glentoran. I would not want to have been accompanied and constrained by my da, particularly when it came to Big Two games - the Glens and the Blues. Not exactly the equivalent of the Glasgow Old Firm but the rivalry and resentment was both real and rabid.

I made the prediction for this one, no longer remembering at this stage whether Paddy concurred with me. The Drogs would not have an extended cup run. Galway would return to semifinal action after a three year absence.

What lit up the night for me was action not from the pitch but from the terraces, and it did not come in the form of flares. The Ultras by now seem sick to the teeth of the profiteering owners who shafted Joanna Byrne. She was forced to walk the plank for taking a principled stand against the FAI over its refusal to boycott the national team of the country of child killers. The Ultras held aloft a banner calling time on Trivela's involvement in the club. While this protest was probably more a reaction to the lowly league position than it was to do with the Byrne issue, it was uplifting all the same.


On the field The Drogs started as if they meant business, even going ahead three minutes after being forced to replace Keegan Ancelin twelve minutes in due to an injury. A Conor Kane throw in, Galway failed to clear their lines, Brandon Kavanagh pounced, and the Aviva in November seemed that little bit closer. But like the oasis in the desert it turned out to be a mirage. The Tribesmen drew level midway through the first half courtesy of a headed effort by Stephen Walsh. The Drogs almost snatched a lead in the dying moments of the half when Alfie Bates whipped in an inch perfect cross which Doyle failed to convert.

Doyle again came close in the 57th minute but his shot rebounded off the post. That it was not his night was underscored by a second yellow card for diving. They call it simulation these days. With almost thirty minutes remaining on the clock to our right, the Drogs reduced to ten men were up against it. Our tribe looked certain to lose to the Tribesmen. This was put beyond doubt eight minutes from time when Lee Devitt cracked home a worthy winner.

On the way out, we engaged in conversation with the father of one of the Drogheda players. Knowledgeable about the game and fiercely proud of his son, his no nonsense insights into the club's predicament as it roots around the drop zone were invaluable. Not the worst end to an otherwise disappointing evening.

⏩Follow on Bluesky.

Drogs ⚽ Tribesmen ⚽ Cup Exit

Geordie Morrow 🖌 with a painting from his collection of art work.




 
⏩Geordie Morrow is a Belfast artist.

Colours

Muiris Ó Súilleabháin ✍ Before going any further, I think I should reiterate my own position.

I don't buy into the border poll mania that has infected the discussion about the journey to an Irish Republic. I don't believe a border poll offers a solution to the more pressing political, social and economic problems we face. It will never bring the Republic. I don't believe the British government will call one in the foreseeable future and, even if it did, I don't believe we are remotely close to a majority capable of winning it.

That does not mean the questions raised by Louth Forever should be dismissed. Quite the opposite. The discussions being generated in TPQ are the discussions that those who claim ownership of the New Ireland debate should be having. They cannot and will not.

The Vice 🪶 Everyone Can Name The Problem 🪶 Nobody Will Pay For The Answer is another challenging and insightful contribution to that discussion, and, even for those of us sceptical of the current obsession with border polls, it poses a question that goes considerably beyond the mechanics of calling one.

What are those who advocate constitutional change actually prepared to give in order to achieve it?

I found the distinction between an “ask” and a “remedy” particularly pertinent. It is relatively easy to identify what Britain should do, what unionism should concede, what Dublin should prepare for or what the Secretary of State should clarify. It is considerably more difficult to identify what those advocating constitutional change are themselves prepared to concede, surrender or pay in order to achieve it.

There is, however, another question which perhaps precedes even that one.

Who has been paying the cost until now?

Louth Forever's reference to Michelle O'Neill and the prospect of nurses taking industrial action is perhaps the perfect example. Nurses in the North are once again demanding pay parity with their colleagues in Britain. There is a particular irony in O'Neill now blaming the British and warning of the consequences of decisions she herself took as Minister for Health.

Those inside the room still make the decisions. Those outside it still pay the cost.

And perhaps that is where any serious discussion about cost has to begin. Before asking what republicans, nationalists or unionists might have to concede in some hypothetical future settlement, we should acknowledge that the political arrangements of the past three decades have already carried a price. We need to acknowledge that those who have benefited most from those arrangements have not been the people who paid for it.

The Fleadh meant different things to different people

I don't wish to get into semantics about the Fleadh itself. The return of the northern Assembly this week saw both the DUP and Sinn Féin claim its success as vindication of their respective political positions. Both are wrong. It was a magnificent victory for all the people who call Ireland home.

I deliberately pitched my original comments on the Fleadh in constitutional terms. Any line of reasoning which assumes that Irish nationalists somehow have ownership of Irish culture in all its manifestations makes me uncomfortable. Likewise, the contention that allowing “others” access to that culture constitutes inclusion. It does not.

Irish traditional music, song, dance and culture do not belong to nationalist Ireland. Culture is multidimensional and complex, and Protestant Ireland and unionist Ireland have shaped our shared culture to the same extent as Catholic or nationalist Ireland.

A Protestant playing Irish traditional music is therefore not being generously admitted into somebody else's culture. It is his culture too. The very suggestion that nationalist Ireland somehow owns Irish culture and can then demonstrate its inclusivity by allowing others to participate in it perpetuates the division we claim to be trying to overcome.

Isn't that part of how we ended up in this mess in the first place?

For me, that was the real significance of the Fleadh. It wasn't nationalist Ireland demonstrating that it could accommodate British or unionist identity. It was people from multiple traditions participating in a culture that belongs to all of them equally. They are not being included. They are already part of it.

As Louth Forever argues, that becomes a much more difficult proposition when we move from culture to constitutional politics. The fact remains that the Fleadh was held in the United Kingdom. I deliberately made that point in my original piece because my argument was constitutional, not cultural.

My contention is that, in the post-GFA North, most of the grievances which fuelled the civil rights movement have been addressed. The northern state in which Irishness was once regarded with suspicion, and its outward expression routinely met with hostility, has changed considerably. Irish language, music, sport and culture can now be expressed openly in this part of the United Kingdom in ways that would have been almost unimaginable to earlier generations.

That was precisely my point about the Fleadh. Its success does not demonstrate that the constitutional question has been resolved in favour of Irish unity. If anything, it demonstrates something rather more uncomfortable for republicans, and that is the North has become considerably better at accommodating Irishness.

None of that makes the North less Irish. Nor does it make the Union desirable. But it does remove many of the everyday cultural and political grievances which once made the northern state intolerable to a substantial section of its population.

And that matters enormously when we move from culture to constitutional politics. If people can live openly as Irish, speak Irish, play Irish music, attend the Fleadh, follow the GAA and carry an Irish passport while remaining constitutionally within the United Kingdom, then cultural Irishness cannot itself provide the argument for constitutional change.

Something more has to be offered, and that, I think, is where Louth Forever's challenge really begins to bite.

If a different constitutional future is ever to be constructed, people from the Protestant and unionist tradition cannot simply be invited into a project designed by nationalists and republicans and presented with a list of guarantees about how generously they will be treated. They have to co-design the project.

They are not guests in Ireland. They are not planters. They are the co-owners of Ireland.

And that brings us back to Louth Forever's question about cost.

A guarantee which costs us nothing is not much of a guarantee. Would republicans, for example, be prepared to defend the right of an Orange parade to walk along the Garvaghy Road?

I have previously questioned, in Remembering, how the issue of remembrance might be dealt with in a new Ireland. Whose dead would be remembered, how would they be remembered, and would we be prepared to accord legitimacy to forms of remembrance which make us deeply uncomfortable?

These are not peripheral questions. They go directly to Louth Forever's argument about cost.

Is there an appetite to pay these costs to secure a new Ireland? More fundamentally, are these discussions even taking place?

I choose these examples precisely because they are uncomfortable. There is little value in demonstrating our tolerance by promising to protect only those things with which we already agree.

If the guarantees offered to unionists require nothing of nationalists and republicans beyond accepting things they already find acceptable, then very little has actually been guaranteed. The real test comes when protecting somebody else's identity, tradition or rights requires us to accept something we would rather not.

That is when a new Ireland begins to carry a cost.

But there is another potential cost, and for Sinn Féin it may be considerably greater.

It may have to give up ownership of the unity project.

In The 2% Club, I hypothesise on the early writings of Gerry Adams and, in particular, The Politics of Irish Freedom. The political strategy articulated by Adams in the 1980s was not simply about making Sinn Féin sufficiently large that it could deliver Irish unity on everybody else's behalf. The objective was to help create a mass political and social movement that extended far beyond Sinn Féin itself.

The objective was not to build a mass Sinn Féin. It was to build a mass movement for radical change.

Almost forty years later, for those who remain predisposed to building the Republic, perhaps the remedy remains that original objective. It simply needs to be rediscovered.

Personally, these days, I am more predisposed to gardening, but the point remains.

Sinn Féin has built Sinn Féin. What it has not built is that mass movement.

A genuine mass movement for radical change cannot simply be Sinn Féin with a few extra chairs around the table. It must not be “Irelands Future” mark two.

That is why I fundamentally disagree with Declan Kearney's proposal for a forum bringing together what he describes as “Irish national democratic opinion”.

I understand the thinking behind it, but his language draws me back to the Free State/Brit isolationist policies of the 1970s and 1980s. It begins by defining who is entitled to participate and, by implication, who is not.

Not only does his proposal exclude republicans who fall outside his definition of acceptable “national democratic opinion”, it excludes a significant section of the population who do not consider themselves Irish at all.

Declan, it appears, has already decided what constitutes acceptable “national democratic opinion”.

Democrats and nice people are welcome.

People like me, presumably, need not apply.

But neither, presumably, need many of the people whose participation would actually be essential if constitutional change is ever to command majority support in the North.

That seems to me precisely the wrong starting point. You cannot build a genuinely national movement by first deciding which parts of the nation are entitled to participate in it.

It would necessarily have to include constitutional nationalists, republicans who rejected the Provisional settlement, socialists, social democrats, conservatives, independents and people with no particular party allegiance at all.

More importantly, it would have to include people from the Protestant and unionist tradition who are prepared to contemplate a discussion about constitutional change without first being required to become nationalists or republicans. Unionism cannot simply be invited into somebody else's project. They have to co-design it.

And that means Sinn Féin giving up something considerably more difficult than another political concession. Control.

Such a movement would therefore have to be independent of Sinn Féin. It would have to be capable of disagreeing with Sinn Féin and, when necessary, telling Sinn Féin no.

If the objective is radical constitutional change rather than the continued electoral advancement of Sinn Féin, there may come a point at which the interests of the party and the interests of the wider project diverge. At that point, Sinn Féin would then have to decide which matters more.

Border Poll Mania

As I have already said, I don't share the faux enthusiasm for a Border Poll. But Sinn Féin does, and it has accepted the constitutional mechanism through which such a poll would be triggered by signing up to the GFA in 1998. It therefore seems reasonable to examine the argument on Sinn Féin's own terms.

I hold an unorthodox view on Sinn Féin's increasingly insistent demands for a border poll. My belief is that the demand owes rather more to the limitations of the Provisional strategy than to any serious expectation that a referendum is imminent.

There is nowhere else left for the Provos to go.

The IRA ended its campaign without achieving its stated objective, it decommissioned its weapons. Sinn Féin simultaneously accepted the consent principle and entered the institutions of the GFA.

Sinn Féin has become the largest party in the North, holds the office of First Minister and has achieved levels of electoral support across Ireland that would have been unimaginable when the strategy was first developed.

Yet none of that, in itself, has brought Irish unity any closer. Under the mechanism Sinn Féin accepted in 1998, the determining factor is not how large Sinn Féin becomes but whether a majority in the North can be persuaded to vote for constitutional change.

The border poll has become the final destination of a Sinn Féin strategy where all other options have been closed down.

Additionally, there is something remarkably cost-free about demanding a border poll when you are reasonably confident that the British government will say no. Sinn Féin demands one, the British refuse, and Sinn Féin can point to that refusal as further evidence of British obstruction. As Dixie would say, keeping the deluded happy.

But what if the British said yes?

Suddenly the cost to Sinn Féin becomes very real.

Sinn Féin would have to fight the referendum it has spent years demanding, and it would have to win it. A defeat would not simply postpone Irish unity for another few years. It would call into question the entire strategic trajectory through which the compromises of the past four decades have been justified.

The potential cost to Sinn Féin would be existential.

This makes the continuing argument about the criteria for calling a border poll even more perplexing.

The party repeatedly demands that the British government clarify the criteria by which a Secretary of State would determine that the threshold for calling a referendum had been reached.

Perhaps Sinn Féin and its proxies should answer the question itself. What evidence would persuade Sinn Féin that the criterion it signed up to in 1998 has actually been met?

Opinion polls? If so, what percentage and sustained for how long?

Election results? If so, which votes constitute votes for unity?

Demographic change? If so, why should religious or community background be assumed to determine constitutional preference?

Or some combination of these?

Before asking the British once more to tell us what evidence would persuade them that a majority exists, Comrade Kearney should tell us what evidence would persuade Sinn Féin.

But there is a cost attached to doing that also. Once Sinn Féin states its own benchmark, its rhetoric of momentum becomes publicly measurable.

And what happens if Sinn Féin's own reasonable test tells us what most numerate people already suspect: that the majority required to win a border poll simply does not exist?

Then the central strategic question is no longer why the British government will not call a referendum. It is much more difficult, and it is being played out in Scotland as we speak.

How do you create a majority for unity in the North?

To Conclude

This is where Louth Forever's argument ultimately takes me. Not towards another demand upon Britain. Not towards another timetable for a border poll. And certainly not towards another Sinn Féin initiative designed to demonstrate that Irish unity is just around the corner.

It takes me back to the question of cost.

Who has paid until now and who has benefited?

What are those who have benefited most prepared to surrender if achieving their stated objective requires it?

Republicans may have to surrender some old assumptions about ownership of Irishness. We may have to make guarantees which genuinely cost us something.

And Sinn Féin may ultimately have to surrender something it has spent forty years acquiring: ownership and leadership of the unity project.

If the mass movement envisaged all those years ago is ever to exist, it cannot belong to Sinn Féin. It should not even be a republican movement. Sinn Féin can participate in it. It can argue within it. It can contribute enormously to building it. But it cannot own it.

Sometimes leadership is about knowing when it is time to stop leading.

⏩Muiris Ó Súilleabháin was a member of the Republican Movement until he retired in 2006 after 20 years of service. Fiche bhliain ag fás.

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