Writing in the Belfast Telegraph, Anthony McIntyre looks at the spectacular rise of Sinn Fein in the South.

When Mary Lou McDonald took over the reins of Sinn Fein from the caudillo who preceded her, she hardly hit the ground running. With a disastrous outing in the 2018 Presidential election followed by a dismal showing in last year’s local government elections, those who dismissed the idea that Gerry Adams carried too much baggage to permit take-off, seemed to have their point proven. After last weekend’s election, with McDonald now airborne and soaring, any suggestion of a P45 coming her way has vanished.

With the counts from the election centres not yet completed, it remains possible that Sinn Fein will push Fianna Fail so close that if, in the event of a coalition between both parties, McDonald insists on a rotating Taoiseach, Micheal Martin will find it hard to refuse. That is how far Sinn Fein has come.

The phenomenal overnight rise of the party has been propelled by two factors. Fianna Fail’s Confidence and Supply arrangement that allowed Fine Gael to carry on misgoverning has proven disastrous. What seemed a good idea at the time – in large part govern from the opposition benches but let those with ministerial briefs take the blame for any downturn – caused Fianna Fail to become indistinguishable from Fine Gael. That more than any single factor created the space for something that at least resembled a much-needed plausible opposition to channel the swelling public resentment.

What eased Sinn Fein’s move into that plausibility vacuum was the vacation of its party presidency by Gerry Adams, whose fidelity to ambition had long stifled the party’s potential. With him out of sight the stench of decomposition that clung to his persona has faded to the point where what remains of it is no longer a repellent to voters. Mary Lou McDonald was able to sweep aside probes about the brutal killing of Paul Quinn in a manner that Adams was never able to do in respect of Jean McConville. Huge swathes of voters can now approach Sinn Fein without feeling the need to hold their noses. And once the Sinn Fein genie was out of the bottle there was no way for Fianna Fail or Fine Gael to get it back in.

Sinn Fein’s performance has sent shockwaves reverberating throughout the political system and commentariat, where some of the more deluded have taken to issuing a siren call to arms against what they mendaciously imply is a Nazi phenomenon. No doubt there remain quite a few within Sinn Fein, particularly in the North, who would readily don the brownshirts and smash a lot of glass, but the huge upsurge in Sinn Fein support is not coming from goose steppers. It is attracted to what the party says on housing, homelessness and health, not drawn to its internal culture of bullying. While Adams, as a martial politician, may have had much in common with Roberto D’Aubisson, the same cannot be said of McDonald.

Nor does Sinn Fein’s success amount to an endorsement of the Provisional IRA’s armed struggle. On the contrary, senior party figure Gerry Kelly in the past week has been operating as a recruiting agent for the PSNI which thanked him by immediately announcing its intention to arrest and prosecute several people suspected of having taken part in the IRA’s campaign.

Those of us who have long felt that Sinn Fein merely wanted to become that which they previously hated cannot seriously begin to extrapolate from their electoral success that they pose a Nazi-like threat to democracy or are intent on legitimising the IRA’s failed campaign. As in the North they are about to morph into that which they hope to replace. Sinn Fein’s history in the Northern Executive has been anything but one of radical change, agreeing with the DUP the implementation of Tory austerity measures including raising the pension age.

If propelled into government by the demand for change Sinn Fein will, on past form, ultimately short-change the people who elected it. Capital will not be brought under democratic control, there will be no “assertive levelling and redistribution of economic resources”, no enhanced social wage. With the two-party state having overnight become a three-party state, Tweedledee and Tweedledum have been joined by Tweedleduh.

Sinn Fein Morphing

Writing in the Belfast Telegraph, Anthony McIntyre looks at the spectacular rise of Sinn Fein in the South.

When Mary Lou McDonald took over the reins of Sinn Fein from the caudillo who preceded her, she hardly hit the ground running. With a disastrous outing in the 2018 Presidential election followed by a dismal showing in last year’s local government elections, those who dismissed the idea that Gerry Adams carried too much baggage to permit take-off, seemed to have their point proven. After last weekend’s election, with McDonald now airborne and soaring, any suggestion of a P45 coming her way has vanished.

With the counts from the election centres not yet completed, it remains possible that Sinn Fein will push Fianna Fail so close that if, in the event of a coalition between both parties, McDonald insists on a rotating Taoiseach, Micheal Martin will find it hard to refuse. That is how far Sinn Fein has come.

The phenomenal overnight rise of the party has been propelled by two factors. Fianna Fail’s Confidence and Supply arrangement that allowed Fine Gael to carry on misgoverning has proven disastrous. What seemed a good idea at the time – in large part govern from the opposition benches but let those with ministerial briefs take the blame for any downturn – caused Fianna Fail to become indistinguishable from Fine Gael. That more than any single factor created the space for something that at least resembled a much-needed plausible opposition to channel the swelling public resentment.

What eased Sinn Fein’s move into that plausibility vacuum was the vacation of its party presidency by Gerry Adams, whose fidelity to ambition had long stifled the party’s potential. With him out of sight the stench of decomposition that clung to his persona has faded to the point where what remains of it is no longer a repellent to voters. Mary Lou McDonald was able to sweep aside probes about the brutal killing of Paul Quinn in a manner that Adams was never able to do in respect of Jean McConville. Huge swathes of voters can now approach Sinn Fein without feeling the need to hold their noses. And once the Sinn Fein genie was out of the bottle there was no way for Fianna Fail or Fine Gael to get it back in.

Sinn Fein’s performance has sent shockwaves reverberating throughout the political system and commentariat, where some of the more deluded have taken to issuing a siren call to arms against what they mendaciously imply is a Nazi phenomenon. No doubt there remain quite a few within Sinn Fein, particularly in the North, who would readily don the brownshirts and smash a lot of glass, but the huge upsurge in Sinn Fein support is not coming from goose steppers. It is attracted to what the party says on housing, homelessness and health, not drawn to its internal culture of bullying. While Adams, as a martial politician, may have had much in common with Roberto D’Aubisson, the same cannot be said of McDonald.

Nor does Sinn Fein’s success amount to an endorsement of the Provisional IRA’s armed struggle. On the contrary, senior party figure Gerry Kelly in the past week has been operating as a recruiting agent for the PSNI which thanked him by immediately announcing its intention to arrest and prosecute several people suspected of having taken part in the IRA’s campaign.

Those of us who have long felt that Sinn Fein merely wanted to become that which they previously hated cannot seriously begin to extrapolate from their electoral success that they pose a Nazi-like threat to democracy or are intent on legitimising the IRA’s failed campaign. As in the North they are about to morph into that which they hope to replace. Sinn Fein’s history in the Northern Executive has been anything but one of radical change, agreeing with the DUP the implementation of Tory austerity measures including raising the pension age.

If propelled into government by the demand for change Sinn Fein will, on past form, ultimately short-change the people who elected it. Capital will not be brought under democratic control, there will be no “assertive levelling and redistribution of economic resources”, no enhanced social wage. With the two-party state having overnight become a three-party state, Tweedledee and Tweedledum have been joined by Tweedleduh.

18 comments:

  1. AM

    Hahaha, the Telegraph took the headline from your piece. Sorry about that, Mackers, I was sleep deprived and the headline tipped me over. Have you made alliances with the editors of the Telegraph? Will you have a regular gig?

    I asked a friend the other day if he thought Gerry was still behind the scenes pulling levers and strings. The friend is an old newspaperman and used to manage Stiff Little Fingers - best lunch companion you could ever have. Anyway, he said of Gerry, "Of course he is." If that's true, he's pulled another fast one and the stench you mention has only moved out the back door. I imagine Sinn Féin's victory is attributable in large part to a young voting bloc that has no memory of the dirty war. Given the curtain between the Republic and the North, these young voters, joined by others simply fed up with FG and FF, do not immediately see images of Enniskillen and other damning botches when Sinn Féin is plastered in front of them.

    Larry Hughes commented on Sunday that the surge for Sinn Féin should not be interpreted as an endorsement of republicanism in general. Words of wisdom from the mystical East. When the party becomes the Tweedleduh you envision that drift from the old IRA will become even more apparent.

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    1. Michael - I have written for them on a few occasions over the years but probably turned down offers too often to tie down a regular slot, if they ever considered one. At times they would ring up and ask for a piece to be in by 6 in the evening. I was in work or something and had to decline.
      It is my belief that Sawney Bean has stepped back into the shadows rather than down and so continues to try to shape events. He is the spokesman on Irish unity which puts him in a good place if he makes a 2025 bid for the presidency. Hence his irritability about the delay in the referendum on extending the eligibility to vote in presidential elections. He is not trying to improve SF fortunes for its own sake but for the purpose of placing a buffer between him and his past. He basically needs MLM to serve as a cleaning lady whose enhancement of the party's fortunes will help sanitise and disinfect him.
      Larry I suspect is right - for now this should be seen as a flash flood rather than an indicator of long term climate change.

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    2. Mackers - Newspaper work is tough, the turnaround stressful. The BT asking you to crank it out by 6:00 is a hard ask but probably not that unusual, is it? I used to do sports journalism for Louisville Catholic Sports (raised an Episcopalian but content to get history other places now) and had to write in a one hour fury after watching soccer, field hockey, and wrestling matches. The pay was crap but the experience was valuable. Lorenzo would go out with me as a cub reporter and stick the tape recorder in players' faces. As for the boy from Ballymurphy, he's a political animal of near unparalleled acumen. Always lurking. I'm only just getting a picture of Mary Lou. Rathgar, Churchtown, Trinity College, literature student, not from the North. That's a useful profile for a SF cleaning lady.

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  2. Anthony,

    And former Fianna Fail member Mary Lou McDonald will say “Leaders lead.”

    “They make the hard decisions.” And “Adults talk to each other.”

    All in an effort to show the banks & Brits they are a safe pair of hands.

    Just like they’ve been up North as the barracks capo party there.

    Although one possible outcome here is FF and FG doing a grand alliance.

    Like two cheeks of the same ass squeezing tighter.

    Ending forever their historical pretense of being meaningfully different.

    Thereby having a center right government without SF.

    Forcing SF to continue hectoring them from the left side of the Dail.

    This would be a step towards having left-right politics in Ireland.

    Providing clearer choices and so greater accountability and transparency.

    Without having to listen to McDonald's excuses and euphemisms...

    For commemorating the R.I.C.

    At least for now any way.

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    Replies
    1. Eoghan - I can't see party cultures allowing a FF-FG alliance. Plus strategically Confidence and Supply was a disaster. They would merely create the opposition that would take them out next time around and they seem to want to avoid that. For now they are trying to spoil the SF party by suggesting they form a government. They know SF enthusiasm is going to be curbed and that the very suggestion by them to SF is part of a process of tempering SF so that it will soon look no different from themsleves. The Tweedle Triplets - Dee, Dum and Duh.

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  3. AM

    I think this result and the pressure that will be on SF to invoke the border poll option -plus the pressures of the 6 county remain majority vote -is grounds for the armed factions to suspend all and any planned operations because the 'last resort option of violence' is off the table at the minute because the possibilty Irish unity is on the cards without use of violence.

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    1. Christy - given the political sterility, the strategic futility, the ethical nihilism, even without the conditions you refer to, there were no grounds for their activity. Even when the last resort option to violence is considered, it has to be a violence that might achieve something. Strategic and necessary, not symbolic and useless violence conducted for self gratification rather than political effect.

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    2. AM

      I agree with you. I was just trying to temper my words because I know how hyper-sensitive dissidents are to being criticised or questioned. I would re-propose, what I once proposed before, that they look for an honourable way to disengage from violence. If their objective is a united Ireland then there are a lot of reasons why they ought to apply effective presure on SF to pursue a boarder poll.

      I have the feeling that they might prefer a United Ireland obtained by their methods only and not by anyone elses; which we know is never going to happen.

      Delete
  4. Time to enjoy the fruits of his labor, he’s made an absolute killing!

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  5. Sinn Féin have certainly had a great election on the back of the zeitgeist for change. The 'retirement' of the old caudillo and the feminisation of the party together have facilitated the party's rise in the polls. They certainly seem to have overcome the challenge they had in getting women to vote for their candidates.

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    1. Henry Joy - the feminisation of the party wasn't something I considered in the piece. I suspect the reluctance you refer to has been overcome by the stepping back into the shadows by Sawney Bean. Allegations about his track record in respect of some women would not enhance voter attraction.

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  6. Anthony,

    Political necessity is the mother of government invention.

    So, if SF and DUP can join hands in the North...

    FF and FG should have no problem doing same in the South.

    Even though that may spell doom for them later.

    Because like drug addicts in need of their daily fix...

    Power now addicts can't help themselves either.

    That said though...

    I would have no problem with FF and SF joining hands.

    Since FF has been the kiss of death for small parties.


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    Replies
    1. Eoghan - except in this case SF is not the small party. I see FF are open to talks with FG. At this point it might be more for the optics. But as a friend said it would at least allow FF to retain the Taoiseach instead of sharing it. Why FG might want the poison chalice is anybody's guess. I sense a view within those parties that the way to finish SF off is to get them into government.

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  7. Anthony,

    They’re all small parties now.

    Since none of them can dominate the Dail on their own.

    And I suspect FF and FG hate SF more.

    Which is why I doubt FF and FG are only posing for the optics.

    They’re like many US Democrats who prefer Trump over Sanders.

    Because they are at heart politically conservative.

    But getting SF into government…

    Could force SF to un-differentiate its product so to speak.

    Thus, exposing SF as not any more progressive than FG/FF.

    Truly just the duh of dee and dum as you say.

    Only concerned about power for its own sake.

    As they have always really been.

    Besides, FG/FF/SF are all “former” IRA factions.

    And they’re all for the GFA, the EU and neo-liberal economics.

    In short, they are all more alike than unalike.

    So, I really don’t know what all the fuss is about.

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  8. Anthony,

    And I don’t feel especially prescient about this.

    It’s just obviating the obvious:

    i.e. Two center right parties stop living together and marry.

    But I love this line from that article you put up here:

    “And sure aren’t the Greens just posh Fine Gaelers on bikes anyway.”

    Even so the Greens should avoid this threesome with FF & FG.

    Because it will be the kiss of death for them.

    Just like it was last time they slept with FF.

    Since it will force them to un-differentiate their product so to speak.

    See this from Ciaran Cuffe:

    Following the 2007 election, the Green Party formed a coalition government with two other political parties and a number of independent TDs. Just after the election, on 28 May 2007, (Ciaran Cuffe) wrote in his blog: "A deal with Fianna Fáil would be a deal with the Devil. We would be spat out after 5 years, and decimated as a party." He lost his seat at the 2011 general election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciar%C3%A1n_Cuffe

    Ah well, as Yogi Berra would say: “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

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    1. there remain good reasons from each of their own perspectives not to go in together just now and ride the storm. Not as if with them in opposition we are going to wake up tomorrow in a socialist Republic or even in a country where the Pension age is pulled back to 65! And if Sawney Bean has his beady eye on the Presidency in 2025 and is manipulating events to suit his own political career, then the opposition bench presents an opportunity for FG-FF to upend his ambitions, They don't even need to coalesce to do it. It might just suit both to let the Ministry For Social Protection Rackets get on with it!

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  9. Anthony,

    As always, they'll each do what they deem to be in their own best interest. Although, I think you're right, FF & FG may want to sit this time in government out for the reasons you stated here. But I think their insatiable never-ending desire for power and corruption, like opiate addicts reaching for a fix, will cloud their long-term thinking. Thus, leaving SF once again as the Shadow Ministry for the Social Protection Rackets but also with a better shot for Mr. Bean in 2025. That is...unless you or Marion Price...decide to upend his ambitions and give it a go yourselves...as the Volunteer vs. the Draft Dodger! In fact, your campaign slogan can be: "Never forget - vote for the Vet!"

    ReplyDelete